The Bewilderness

Autopsy on the proto-flash riots

Returning to a singular disruptive and essentially short-term event, the London riots (with their hyped air of ungovernability), how far has this thuggery been blamed on social networking?Articles at the time viewed social networking tools as an accelerant for a social process. Riots have always occurred: but twitter and BBM allowed the rioters to focus, co-ordinate, choose targets and avoid authority. Secondly, the social networks reinforced group norms of validation in unique circumstances: how many times did we hear looters state that they were stealing because everyone else was doing so. Crimes were committed by a far wider range of individuals than expected. Such validation was also spread by more traditional networks: the media, phones, gangs and so on.

The courts have sent down 1,000 criminals for their part in the disturbances: they were mostly white and black, none were over 40 and the government's determination for tough sentencing has been met. Most were prosecuted for burglary, violent disorder and theft. A disturbing trend was the number of juveniles arrested and charged. 

Will we see further opportunistic flash riots in future years?

Bank bailout transacted through Greek front

The Telegraph caught up with Euractiv today, reporting that France and Germany would harmonise their corporate taxes on an intergovernmental basis. The pioneering duo hope to provide additional foundations for a Fiscal Union and prevent tax competition. I predict this is one wheeze that will survive a Hollande win, although he may wish to increase taxes against German opposition.

Still, the lunatics remain in charge of the asylum. A second Greek bail-out has been announced alongside some verbiage announcing the transformation of a basket case into a dynamic export driven economy. Potential strengths like tourism are ignored (since they would thrive in devaluation) and emphasis is laid on austerity and privatisation. You know, asset strippers.

Since the economy is now at crisis point, the paper is the final novel in this fantasy trilogy. Their medicine: cut wages, privatise the state and open Greece up to investment. How they will dispel the risk of default, depression and revolution is open to question. 

Such a programme can only be completed with victory for the political elite. Their support is shrivelling by the day. The collapse is priced in, now: duration till the event remains unknowable, but it can't be too long now. Elections in April.

The bandwagon rolls on: a killing joke

France and Germany have found that they were unable to obtain consensus for a 27 member approach to corporation tax. What we would call competition, they deride as dumping. Like Sarkozy in his magnanimous experiment on the Tobin tax, both countries have decided to bilaterally fix their corporation taxes as a step towards the mouthful: the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (also known as 'all your taxes are for Europe'). 

From the Brussels perspective, this is described as 'enhanced co-operation', a sign of where they would like it to be, not just a Franco-German initiative. And we will see how far this lasts...given the French elections coming up. On this point, they do wish to foist this on the whole Eurozone, removing one more method by which endebted countries may be able to compete. 

And on another point of lunacy: we have Desmond Tutu lobbying the European Union for charging Canada more, as oil from tar sands and other sources could be imported, lowering the price of fuel. Part of the evil that forces the poor to choose between heating and eating, killing pensioners for the supposed good of the planet. The heating in Brussels isn't turned down.

Witting Collusion to save the Greek client state

Where to start with the hellhole that Greece has become. Why is it a hellhole? Because its politicians have opted for a continuation of their membership in the Eurozone at the expense of their electorate. The political class from left to right have supported a technocratic executive, joining a coalition government to appear as if they were carrying out the measures required for the bail-out. None of these parties were strong enough to dismantle the clientelist insider model.

I am depressed that even, in the throes of depression, the Greek political classes remain insulated from radical change, as demanded by their victims. It is not in their interests to be voted out and lose their powerbase. Nor is it in the interests of those who have bailed them out: watch their money shrivel in the cold wind of righteous popular anger. Neither the Greek politicians nor their debtors have an interest in putting any plan to the Greek voters. Why would the kleptocrats desire an election when they can acquiesce and blame inevitable change on financial paratroopers from occupying forces.

So we have a series of mock battles on sovereignty: shifts from democracy to technocracy and finally, the potential surrender of fiscal sovereignty to external forces.  

Whatever paeans to nationalism we may see drop like swill from hogs, no politician in Europe wants to risk an election with a revolutionary outcome. 

Sovereignty (as the will of the people) will be the EU issue of 2012.

A Maudulent civil service

Francis Maude is on something; a reality altering substance, perhaps. He sees a small state already, with a civil service that runs like an efficient family firm. Remarkable that these changes must have passed us by. Tally ho! Look, there goes civil service reform, don't you know.

Or there's the reality: debt going up, delusional protestations of austerity; Leviathan that only crowds out 50% of the economy....

So how have they done this: cut consultants and temps. Well, that's a start. But Francis, this is not getting the best returns: for that, we would have to own you, have some stake in the family firm: such as shares. We don't and your abysmal leader is talking about price fixing. How many quangos have you shut?

I am tired of tax, of gimmicks, of lunatic policies and grandstanding "we care" publicity stunts. This civil service lost control of our borders a few months ago. So your joke isn't funny. When you get to 40% and tax freedom day is in May, I may start to take you seriously....

Brussels and the No Turning Back Group

The European Commission is making its view known in London. The Social Affairs Commissioner, Laszlo Andor, was talking to an audience of trade unionists, since any other group may have taken  umbrage at his words. But, Andor's words, whilst music to the brothers, was a broadside to David Cameron. Choosing his terrain carefully and in a calculated insult, Andor confirmed that there could be no opt-out on social policy. He stated that repatriation would not be allowed: socially, legally or politically. 

Then, Andor attacked an "unreasoning" defence of free markets and joked about unelected bureaucrats rather inadvertently proving a Eurosceptic point:

"May I take the opportunity to debunk a myth frequently heard here in the UK - that 'unelected Brussels bureaucrats' dictate EU health and safety at work legislation. I often muse at the term 'unelected bureaucrats' — as if many bureaucrats were elected! It also fudges the issue of accountability, which has nothing to do with being elected."

It is only through elections that politicians are rendered accountable, which does beg the question: who does Laszlo Andor think he is accountable to?

For Barroso, the answer is in a form of political union. As he told to the Chinese in a recent summit: first economic, then fiscal, then political. Barroso did not confirm if there would be any voters involved.

 

Yet one more vote, one more summit, one more bail-out...

Greek rioters have begun to burn buildings as a torrid backdrop to the parliamentary vote on accepting austerity measures. Parliamentary opposition has coalesced around a question of sovereignty. All of the political parties that used the technocratic government of Papademos to distance themselves from these policies are suffering meltdown in the polls. If nothing else, the destruction of the political class that brought Greece to this pass would be a welcome development.

Even if the parliament votes in favour of Papademos, new elections should remove the tainted parties. Voters are emigrating from the austerity pack and moving towards the far left. Elections are due within a few months, and it is unlikely that any deal will remain unmodified unless Greece suspends its democracy. Watch them deploy the fear card: vote for us or leave the Euro. Except that the buildings are already burning....

It has taken a few years, but we are beginning to see the much predicted resurgence of the Left. 

Waiting for events.....

Record from a recent anecdote on quantitative easing: its effects. One hundred loaves at £1 each and the central bank releases a sum of £100 to combat a lack of growth; one hundred loaves now cost £2. The simple and clear link between money and inflation is not replicated so easily in our economy. Yet, the lack of evidence that QE has helped prevent recession and its distortion of the gilt market has led to cries of anger over its longer term effects.

By depending upon the reliance of aggregated savers for predicatble returns via their pooled funds, the Bank of England and the Tory party have collaborated in grand theft auto by stealth inflation. Frugal Peter has been robbed. But has that helped Profligate Paul? Compared to the United States, our deleveraging process in the private sector has not even commenced. After three years we are further away from making the necessary adjustment. And at what cost? By damaging savings, returns and investment, the Bank of England has crippled the economy and impoverished pensioners. No wonder companies are sitting on cash refusing to invest; who would, with such a government: reward scroungers, penalise thrift!

This may have been designed to erode the public sector deficit, but as a consequence and contra to the majority opinion, QE may have prolonged stagnation. The private sector has been handicapped at the expense of the public domain, accentuating the impact of austerity and dousing animal spirits. 

It is a one time offer from this government. The lack of urgency, the unwillingness to reform, the lack of bite in cutting expenditure, suggests that Osborne's complacency and micromanagement will come back to assault him. None of the political will to deal with this is displayed and the coalition's courage from 2010 is beginning to look like rigid rails, unable to turn aside or reverse if terms of trade worsen.

The coalition will defer to the ghost of Macmillan: events...

 

  

The Commission's figleaf for external affairs

Has the European Union made any headway in its subsidised publishing and agitporn? Alas, no. Baroness Ashton, obscure before her appointment, now languishes second from bottom in a poll to guage popularity of the Commissioners in their own country. Whilst I am the first to laud this healthy indifference and contempt to the EU, I do enjoy the unreal descriptions of Euractiv:

But the same logic cannot be applied to Ashton. Despite being in charge of the most visible dossier on a global scale, the high representative for the European foreign affairs and defense marked a very poor performance on the Web.

Her website had fewer than 8,000 visitors in December, in the same month the European Union moved to step up sanctions against Iran and Syria.

That is definitely less than Guido. And We know why Baroness Ashton gets no publicity. It is because the Commission runs her affairs and she does not even have the power to release her own statements. In all, the role is a waste of time. 

If the EU wishes to release funds for an emergency, it can take a week (the process lie) or a month (the process reality):

In one example, if the EEAS wants to release up to €20 million in emergency funds the decision must go through Ashton's secretary general, her private office, the FPI, "relevant" commission services and the Political and Security Committee (a group of EU countries' ambassadors).

Michael Mann [Ashton's spokesman] said the process takes one week. The head of delegation noted: "It takes about a month and this is supposed to be our fastest instrument."

The poor die so that bureaucrats can have the time to stamp their turf. It is the byzantine politics of the madhouse; time to leave. And what person could principally stand by, thinking that their role has any moral worth....

Eyeballing the Euro

And after all the threats, deadlines, ultimatums and wolfcries, Germany and Greece stand eyeball to eyeball. Now, austerity is no longer a measure that Greek politicians will abide by:

At a press conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Monday, Ms Merkel: "There can be no new Greece programme if agreement is not reached with the troika... All those who bear responsibility in Greece must know - we will not deviate from this position."

She added: "I honestly can't understand how additional days will help. Time is of the essence. A lot is at stake for the entire eurozone."

Who will blink first?